A blog by Oliver Sung

Calibrated thoughts from my notebook.

Guides of Knowledge

The complete guide to
Mental models help us make sense. Make sense of things around us, why we exist, our actions, and the outcomes we face. Here are 349 models explained.
The complete guide to
Why it's important to learn how to make decisions well and how I aim to do it. Here's a framework for decision making that works.

Latest Articles

Circle of Competence
My Investment Philosophy

Consistently excellent performance has to be achieved through extensive knowledge of companies and their securities.

Decision Making
19 Biases That Intervene with Your Investing Success

Being a serious student of the markets is a must for investing success. But the nature of the markets is only part of the intelligent investor’s syllabus. What’s even more important is the lesson of knowing thyself.

Decision Making
Mental Model: Anchoring

Marketers use anchoring to trick you to spend more money, negotiators use anchoring to get in the stronger position, stock investors fall prey to anchoring to their own detriment.

Company Research

[BETCO.ST] Better Collective
Better Collective: Riding the Sports Betting Curve

On the affiliate model, sportsbook relationships, the history of Better Collective, acquisitive growth, the iGaming industry, regulatory opportunities, data advantages, and potential return.

[ADYEN.AS] Adyen
Adyen: First Principles Formula

On the payment ecosystem and its history, distributional strategies, the competitive positions of modern players like Stripe, Square, and Adyen, how Adyen is different from the two others, unified commerce, and a brief on the stock price.

[DIS] The Walt Disney Company
Disney: You’ve Got a Friend in Streaming

On Disney’s acquisitive history and digital transformation, how a shift to DTC shifts the economics of the business, and how I would value the company with the subscription business at focus.

[BABA] Alibaba Group Holding
Alibaba: The Sprawling Octopus

On China’s regulatory crackdowns, the history of Alibaba, the arms of the octopus, how Alibaba monetizes its ecosystem, the moat, how Alibaba could fail, how I would value the company, and a note on position sizing.

[MOMO] Hello Group Inc
Momo Inc: The Story Beyond Live Streaming

On Momo’s two-bet social connectivity, its transformation to a dominant online dating player, how live streaming might hit a wall, the value-added potential of integrating core Momo and Tantan, the moat, and how I would value the company.

[ATHM] Autohome Inc
Autohome: Prospects for Capital Allocation

On how Autohome captures the automobile ownership lifecycle, its big cash position, the capital required for operations, the prospects for future returns on that capital and growth reinvestment, the prospects for returns to shareholders, and how I would value the company.

[FDS] FactSet Research Systems
FactSet Research: Unit Economics Valuation

On how FactSet surfed the wave of data accessibility, the winner-take-most industry, the three main risks of the business, the moat, and how I would value the company through unit economics.

[EAF] GrafTech International
GrafTech: A Case of Simple Math with Minority Risk

On the graphite electrodes industry, the barriers to entry, GrafTech’s vertical integration, its long-term agreements, the easy way to calculate the short-term cash flows, and minority risks.